We propose a novel multivariate GARCH model that incorporates realized measures for the variance matrix of returns. The key novelty is the joint formulation of a multivariate dynamic model for outer-products of returns, realized variances and realized covariances. The updating of the variance...

The focus of this article is using dynamic correlation models for the calculation of minimum variance hedge ratios between pairs of assets. Finding an optimal hedge requires not only knowledge of the variability of both assets, but also of the co-movement between the two assets. For this...

We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...

A Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented that makes use of a finite mixture of many model structures within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. It is applied to two empirical issues. First, stability of the Great Ratios in U.S. macro-economic time series is investigated,...

An early development in testing for causality (technically, Granger non-causality) in the conditional variance (or volatility) associated with financial returns, was the portmanteau statistic for non-causality in variance of Cheng and Ng (1996). A subsequent development was the Lagrange...

The purpose of the paper is to show that univariate GARCH is not a special case of multivariate GARCH, specifically the Full BEKK model, except under parametric restrictions on the off-diagonal elements of the random coefficient autoregressive coefficient matrix, provides the regularity...

The empirical support for a real business cycle model with two technology shocks is evaluated using a Bayesian model averaging procedure. This procedure makes use of a finite mixture of many models within the class ofvector autoregressive (VAR) processes. The linear VAR model is extendedto...

We propose a new framework for studying the evolution of heterogeneous beliefs in a dynamic feedback setting. Beliefs distributions are defined on a beliefs space representing a continuum of possible strategies agents can choose from. Agents base their choices on past performances, re-evaluating...