From a banking supervisory perspective, this paper analyses aspects of market risk of an aggregated trading portfolio comprised of the trading books of 11 German banks with a regulatory approved internal market risk model. Based on real, clean profit and loss data and Value-at-Risk estimates of...

Surveying the forecasting practice of several central banks, we find that all these banks issue statements about risks to their macroeconomic forecasts. Often the balance of these risks is assessed as well. Upward [downward] risks to the forecast commonly imply that the outturn is expected to...

In this paper we propose exact likelihood-based mean-variance efficiency tests of the market portfolio in the context of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), allowing for a wide class of error distributions which include normality as a special case. These tests are developed in the framework of...

In this paper, we use a modified concept of Granger-(non)causality in reconsidering the negative correlation between stock returns and inflation known in the literature as stock return-inflation puzzle. Based on the quarterly data for Germany including stock returns, inflation rates and growth...

From time to time, economies undergo far-reaching structural changes. In this paper we investigate the consequences of structural breaks in the factor loadings for the specification and estimation of factor models based on principal components and suggest test procedures for structural breaks....

We suggest improved tests for cointegration rank in the vector autoregressive (VAR) model and develop asymptotic distribution theory and local power results. The tests are (quasi-)likelihood ratio tests based on a Gaussian likelihood, but of course the asymptotic results apply more generally....

This paper examines the limiting properties of the estimated parameters in the random field regression model recently proposed by Hamilton (Econometrica, 2001). Though the model is parametric, it enjoys the flexibility of the nonparametric approach since it can approximate a large collection of...

Regarding inflation as being a monetary phenomenon in the long-run is a widely-held view in modern macro economics. We analyse this topic by means of a P-star model. Based on the quantity theory of money, this approach explains inflation via a supposed equilibrium price level (P-star), which...

In this paper we will be estimating risk-neutral densities (RND) for the largest euro area stock market (the index of which is the German DAX), reporting their statistical properties, and evaluating their forecasting performance. We have applied an innovative test procedure to a new, rich, and...

Multiple structural change tests by Bei and Perron (1998) are applied to the regression by Demetrescu, Kuzin and Hassler (2008) in order to detect breaks in the order of fractional integration. With this instrument we tackle time-varying inflation persistence as an important issue for monetary...