Declining inflation persistence has been documented in numerous studies. When such series are analyzed in a regression framework in conjunction with other persistent time series, spurious regressions are likely to occur. We propose to use the coefficient of determination R2 as a test statistic...

We propose a new simple model incorporating the implication of the quantity theory of money that money growth and inflation should move one for one in the long run, and, hence, inflation should be predictable by money growth. The model fits postwar U.S. data well, and beats common univariate...

In this work, we make use of the shifting-mean autoregressive model which is a flexible univariate nonstationary model. It is suitable for describing characteristic features in inflation series as well as for medium-term forecasting. With this model we decompose the inflation process into a...

This paper considers the problem of jointly decomposing a set of time series variables into cyclical and trend components, subject to sets of stochastic linear restrictions among these cyclical and trend components. We derive a closed form solution to an ordinary problem featuring homogeneous...

Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon could be the result of a series of transitory shocks or of a permanent change in the structure of the economy leading to a lower NAIRU. The paper suggests that, while the NAIRU...