We introduce tractable models for commodity derivatives pricing with inventory and volatility effects, and illustrate with applications to the oil market. We contribute to the existing literature in several respects. First, whereas the previous literature uses futures data for investigating the...

This paper develops a new systematic approach to implement approximate solutions to asset pricing models within multi-factor diffusion environments. For any model lacking a closed-form solution, we provide a solution obtained by expanding the analytically intractable model around a known...

We investigate the long-run stock-bond correlation using a novel model that combines the dynamic conditional correlation model with the mixed-data sampling approach. The long-run correlation is affected by both macro-finance variables (historical and forecasts) and the lagged realized...

In this paper we show that the long-run stock and bond volatility and the long-run stock-bond correlation depend on macroeconomic uncertainty. We use the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) econometric approach. The findings are in accordance with the flight-to-quality phenomenon when macroeconomic...

We develop a new methodology for estimating time-varying factor loadings and conditional alphas based on nonparametric techniques. We test whether long-run alphas, or averages of conditional alphas over the sample, are equal to zero and derive test statistics for the constancy of factor...

This paper investigates the asymptotic properties of the Gaussian quasi-maximum-likelihood estimators (QMLE?s) of the GARCH model augmented by including an additional explanatory variable - the so-called GARCH-X model. The additional covariate is allowed to exhibit any degree of persistence as...

Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a realtime proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables as...

We estimate long-run consumption-based asset pricing models using a comprehensive set of international test assets, including broad equity market portfolios, international value/growth portfolios, and international bond portfolios. We find that differences in returns across assets within a...

The common perception in the literature, mainly based on U.S. data, is that current dividend yields are uninformative about future dividends. We show that this finding changes substantially when looking at a broad international panel of countries, as aggregate dividend growth rates are found to...

What drives volatility on financial markets? This paper takes a comprehensive look at the predictability of financial market volatility by macroeconomic and financial variables. We go beyond forecasting stock market volatility (by large the focus in previous studies) and additionally investigate...