The exponential model for the spectrum of a time series and its fractional extensions are based on the Fourier series expansion of the logarithm of the spectral density. The coefficients of the expansion form the cepstrum of the time series. After deriving the cepstrum of important classes of...

We examine the joint predictability of return and cash flow within a present value framework, by imposing the implications from a long-run risk model that allow for both time-varying volatility and volatility uncertainty. We provide new evidence that the expected return variation and the...

We test for price discontinuities, or jumps, in a panel of high-frequency intraday returns for forty large-cap stocks and an equiweighted index from these same stocks. Jumps are naturally classified into two types: common and idiosyncratic. Common jumps affect all stocks, albeit to varying...

This paper adopts quantile regressions to scrutinize the realized stock-bond correlation based upon high frequency returns. The paper provides in-sample and out-of-sample analysis and considers a large number of macro-?nance predictors well-know from the return predictability literature. Strong...

This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-fi?nance predictors to revisit the intertemporal risk-return relation in ?five large European stock markets. We identify country specifi?c, Euro area, and global factors to determine the conditional moments of returns considering the role of...

We examine sentiment variables as new predictors for US recessions. We combine sentiment variables with either classical recession predictors or with common factors based on a large panel of macroeconomic and ?nancial variables. Sentiment variables hold vast predictive power for US recessions in...

Structural change affects the estimation of economic signals, like the underlying growth rate or the seasonally adjusted series. An important issue, which has attracted a great deal of attention also in the seasonal adjustment literature, is its detection by an expert procedure. The...

The dynamic dependencies in financial market volatility are generally well described by a long-memory fractionally integrated process. At the same time, the volatility risk premium, defined as the difference between the ex-post realized volatility and the market’s ex-ante expectation thereof,...

Stock market volatility clusters in time, carries a risk premium, is fractionally integrated, and exhibits asymmetric leverage effects relative to returns. This paper develops a first internally consistent equilibrium based explanation for these longstanding empirical facts. The model is cast in...

The literature on modeling and forecasting time-varying volatility is ripe with acronyms and abbreviations used to describe the many different parametric models that have been put forth since the original linear ARCH model introduced in the seminal Nobel Prize winning paper by Engle (1982). The...