Novel transition-based misspeci?cation tests of semiparametric and fully parametric univariate diffusion models based on the estimators developed in Kristensen (Journal of Econometrics, 2010) are proposed. It is demonstrated that transition-based tests in general lack power in detecting local...

A novel estimation method for two classes of semiparametric scalar diffusion models is proposed: In the first class, the diffusion term is parameterised and the drift is left unspecified, while in the second class only the drift term is specified. Under the assumption of stationarity, the...

We propose a nonparametric approach to the estimation and testing of structural change in time series regression models. Under the null of a given set of the coefficients being constant, we develop estimators of both the nonparametric and parametric components. Given the estimators under null...

The exponential model for the spectrum of a time series and its fractional extensions are based on the Fourier series expansion of the logarithm of the spectral density. The coefficients of the expansion form the cepstrum of the time series. After deriving the cepstrum of important classes of...

We examine the joint predictability of return and cash flow within a present value framework, by imposing the implications from a long-run risk model that allow for both time-varying volatility and volatility uncertainty. We provide new evidence that the expected return variation and the...

We test for price discontinuities, or jumps, in a panel of high-frequency intraday returns for forty large-cap stocks and an equiweighted index from these same stocks. Jumps are naturally classified into two types: common and idiosyncratic. Common jumps affect all stocks, albeit to varying...

We develop a new methodology for estimating time-varying factor loadings and conditional alphas based on nonparametric techniques. We test whether long-run alphas, or averages of conditional alphas over the sample, are equal to zero and derive test statistics for the constancy of factor...

This paper investigates the asymptotic properties of the Gaussian quasi-maximum-likelihood estimators (QMLE?s) of the GARCH model augmented by including an additional explanatory variable - the so-called GARCH-X model. The additional covariate is allowed to exhibit any degree of persistence as...

Structural change affects the estimation of economic signals, like the underlying growth rate or the seasonally adjusted series. An important issue, which has attracted a great deal of attention also in the seasonal adjustment literature, is its detection by an expert procedure. The...

The dynamic dependencies in financial market volatility are generally well described by a long-memory fractionally integrated process. At the same time, the volatility risk premium, defined as the difference between the ex-post realized volatility and the market’s ex-ante expectation thereof,...