The exponential model for the spectrum of a time series and its fractional extensions are based on the Fourier series expansion of the logarithm of the spectral density. The coefficients of the expansion form the cepstrum of the time series. After deriving the cepstrum of important classes of...

A stylized fact is that realized variance has long memory. We show that, when the instantaneous volatility is driven by a fractional Brownian motion, the integrated variance is characterized by long-range dependence. As a consequence, the realized variance inherits this property when prices are...

We examine the joint predictability of return and cash flow within a present value framework, by imposing the implications from a long-run risk model that allow for both time-varying volatility and volatility uncertainty. We provide new evidence that the expected return variation and the...

We test for price discontinuities, or jumps, in a panel of high-frequency intraday returns for forty large-cap stocks and an equiweighted index from these same stocks. Jumps are naturally classified into two types: common and idiosyncratic. Common jumps affect all stocks, albeit to varying...

We propose a simple model in which realized stock market return volatility and implied volatility backed out of option prices are subject to common level shifts corresponding to movements between bull and bear markets. The model is estimated using the Kalman filter in a generalization to the...

The no arbitrage relation between futures and spot prices implies an analogous relation between futures and spot volatilities as measured by daily range. Long memory features of the range-based volatility estimators of the two series are analyzed, and their joint dynamics are modeled via a...

A modification of the self-perturbed Kalman filter of Park and Jun (1992) is proposed for the on-line estimation of models subject to parameter instability. The perturbationterm in the updating equation of the state covariance matrix is weighted by the measurement error variance, thus avoiding...

Structural change affects the estimation of economic signals, like the underlying growth rate or the seasonally adjusted series. An important issue, which has attracted a great deal of attention also in the seasonal adjustment literature, is its detection by an expert procedure. The...

The volatility of financial returns is characterized by rapid and large increments. We propose an extension of the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model to incorporate jumps into the dynamics of the ex-post volatility measures. Using the realized-range measures of 36 NYSE stocks, we show that there...

The dynamic dependencies in financial market volatility are generally well described by a long-memory fractionally integrated process. At the same time, the volatility risk premium, defined as the difference between the ex-post realized volatility and the market’s ex-ante expectation thereof,...