The dynamic dependencies in financial market volatility are generally well described by a long-memory fractionally integrated process. At the same time, the volatility risk premium, defined as the difference between the ex-post realized volatility and the market’s ex-ante expectation thereof,...

We extend a recent methodology, Bayesian stochastic model specification search (SMSS), for the selection of the unobserved components (level, slope, seasonal cycles, trading days effects) that are stochastically evolving over time. SMSS hinges on two basic ingredients: the non-centered...