Empirical evidence from time series methods which assume the usual I(0)/I(1) paradigm suggests that the efficient market hypothesis, stating that spot and futures prices of a commodity should cointegrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold. However, these statistical methods are...

In this paper we analyze the limiting properties of the estimated parameters in a general class of asymmetric volatility models which are closely related to the traditional exponential GARCH model. The new representation has three main advantages over the traditional EGARCH: (1) It allows a much...

We suggest improved tests for cointegration rank in the vector autoregressive (VAR) model and develop asymptotic distribution theory and local power results. The tests are (quasi-)likelihood ratio tests based on a Gaussian likelihood, but of course the asymptotic results apply more generally....

This paper proposes a sequential procedure to determine the common cointegration rank of panels of cointegrated VARs. It shows how a panel of cointegrated VARs can be transformed in a set of independent individual models. The likelihood function of the transformed panel is the sum of the...

Asymptotic properties of jump tests rely on the property that any jump occurs within a single time interval no matter what the observation frequency is. Market microstructure effects in relation to news-induced revaluation of the underlying variable is likely to make this an unrealistic...

We propose a bootstrap method for estimating the distribution (and functionals of it such as the variance) of various integrated covariance matrix estimators. In particular, we first adapt the wild blocks of blocks bootstrap method suggested for the pre-averaged realized volatility estimator to...

We study the forecasting of future realized volatility in the foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets from variables in the information set, including implied volatility backed out from option prices. Realized volatility is separated into its continuous and jump components, and the...

A review is given of parametric estimation methods for discretely sampled multivariate diffusion processes. The main focus is on estimating functions and asymptotic results. Maximum likelihood estimation is briefly considered, but the emphasis is on computationally less demanding martingale...

This paper reviews basic notions of return variation in the context of a continuous-time arbitrage-free asset pricing model and discusses some of their applications. We first define return variation in the infeasible continuous-sampling case. Then we introduce realized measures obtained from...

A general theory of efficient estimation for ergodic diffusions sampled at high fre- quency is presented. High frequency sampling is now possible in many applications, in particular in finance. The theory is formulated in term of approximate martingale estimating functions and covers a large...