Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E.; Kinnebrock, Silja; Shephard, Neil - School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus - 2008
We propose a new measure of risk, based entirely on downwards moves measured using high frequency data. Realised semivariances are shown to have important predictive qualities for future market volatility. The theory of these new measures is spelt out, drawing on some new results from...