The aim of this paper is to analyze the financial integration of the South Eastern Europe (SEE) stock markets. We use a multinomial logistic regression to analyze how persistence, asset class and volatility effects are related with negative coexceedances in SEE markets. We find evidence in favor...

This paper uses Danish register data to explain the retirement decision of workers in 1990 and 1998.Many variables might be conjectured to influence this decision such as demographic, socio-economic, financially and health related variables as well as all the same factors for the spouse in case...

We examine sentiment variables as new predictors for US recessions. We combine sentiment variables with either classical recession predictors or with common factors based on a large panel of macroeconomic and ?nancial variables. Sentiment variables hold vast predictive power for US recessions in...

We scrutinize the monthly realized stock-bond correlation based upon high frequency returns. In particular, we use a probit model to track the dynamics of the sign of the correlation relative to its various economic forces. The sign is predictable to a large extent with bond market liquidity...

We develop a class of Poisson autoregressive models with additional covariates (PARX) that can be used to model and forecast time series of counts. We establish the time series properties of the models, including conditions for stationarity and existence of moments. These results are in turn...

We analyze the financial integration of the new EU member states’ stock markets using the coexceedance variable that counts the number of large negative returns on a given day across the countries. We use a multinomial logit model to investigate which factors influence the coexceedance...

Severe simultaneous recessions are de?ned to occur when at least half of the countries under investigation (Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States) are in recession simultaneously. I pose two new research questions that extend upon stylized facts for US recessions....

The main contribution of this paper is to propose a bootstrap method for inference on integrated volatility based on the pre-averaging approach of Jacod et al. (2009), where the pre-averaging is done over all possible overlapping blocks of consecutive observations. The overlapping nature of the...

We propose simple methods for multivariate diffusion bridge simulation, which plays a fundamental role in simulation-based likelihood and Bayesian inference for stochastic differential equations. By a novel application of classical coupling methods, the new approach generalizes a previously...

We consider cointegration rank estimation for a p-dimensional Fractional Vector Error Correction Model. We propose a new two-step procedure which allows testing for further long-run equilibrium relations with possibly different persistence levels. The fi?rst step consists in estimating the...