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We examine the joint predictability of return and cash flow within a present value framework, by imposing the implications from a long-run risk model that allow for both time-varying volatility and volatility uncertainty. We provide new evidence that the expected return variation and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010851207
principal component explains 77% of the variation in the equity volatility level, 77% of the variation in the equity option skew …% correlation with S&P500 index option volatility, a 64% correlation with the index option skew, and a 80% correlation with the … index option term structure. We develop an equity option valuation model that captures this factor structure. The model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010851218
widespread skewness in index options. Finally, our model reveals a nonlinear relationship between bond and option prices that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010851248
We introduce tractable models for commodity derivatives pricing with inventory and volatility effects, and illustrate … considering both the ability of explaining prices in-sample and out-of-sample - assessing both the pricing-performance and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009652368
The dynamic dependencies in financial market volatility are generally well described by a long-memory fractionally integrated process. At the same time, the volatility risk premium, defined as the difference between the ex-post realized volatility and the market’s ex-ante expectation thereof,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009399368
facilitate empirical analysis of both volatility forecasting and volatility risk pricing across distinct future states of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005440033
The LIBOR market model is very popular for pricing interest rate derivatives, but is known to have several pitfalls. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009148813
After the financialization of commodity futures markets in 2004-05 oil volatility has become a strong predictor of returns and volatility of the overall stock market. Furthermore, stocks' exposure to oil volatility risk now drives the cross-section of expected returns. The difference in average...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145697
option-implied volatility measures. A small-scale Monte Carlo experiment confirms that the procedure works well in practice …. Implementing the procedure with actual S&P500 option-implied volatilities and high-frequency five-minute-based realized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114112
Motivated by the implications from a stylized self-contained general equilibrium model incorporating the effects of time-varying economic uncertainty, we show that the difference between implied and realized variation, or the variance risk premium, is able to explain a non-trivial fraction of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114114