I comment on the controversy between McCloskey & Ziliak and Hoover & Siegler on statistical versus economic significance, in the March 2008 issue of the Journal of Economic Methodology. I argue that while McCloskey & Ziliak are right in emphasizing ’real error’, i.e. non-sampling error that...

We consider cointegration rank estimation for a p-dimensional Fractional Vector Error Correction Model. We propose a new two-step procedure which allows testing for further long-run equilibrium relations with possibly different persistence levels. The fi?rst step consists in estimating the...

Polynomial specifications are widely used, not only in applied economics, but also in epidemiology, physics, political analysis, and psychology, just to mention a few examples. In many cases, the data employed to estimate such estimations are time series that may exhibit stochastic nonstationary...

Detection turning points in unimodel has various applications to time series which have cyclic periods. Related techniques are widely explored in the field of statistical surveillance, that is, on-line turning point detection procedures. This paper will first present a power controlled turning...

We consider two likelihood ratio tests, so-called maximum eigenvalue and trace tests, for the null of no cointegration when fractional cointegration is allowed under the alternative, which is a first step to generalize the so-called Johansen's procedure to the fractional cointegration case. The...

The literature on spurious regressions has found that the t-statistic for testing the null of no relationship between two independent variables diverges asymptotically under a wide variety of nonstationary data generating processes for the dependent and explanatory variables. This paper...

In this paper we analyze the limiting properties of the estimated parameters in a general class of asymmetric volatility models which are closely related to the traditional exponential GARCH model. The new representation has three main advantages over the traditional EGARCH: (1) It allows a much...

This paper proposes a methodology for modelling time series of realized covariance matrices in order to forecast multivariate risks. The approach allows for flexible dynamic dependence patterns and guarantees positive definiteness of the resulting forecasts without imposing parameter...

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of portfolio choice with popular foreign exchange (FX) investment styles such as carry trades and strategies commonly known as FX momentum, and FX value. We investigate if diversification benefits can be achieved by style investing in FX markets...

This paper presents new results on the Edgeworth expansion for high frequency functionals of continuous diffusion processes. We derive asymptotic expansions for weighted functionals of the Brownian motion and apply them to provide the Edgeworth expansion for power variation of diffusion...