This paper introduces a Duration Hidden Markov Model to model bull and bear market regime switches in the stock market; the duration of each state of the Markov Chain is a random variable that depends on a set of exogenous variables. The model not only allows the endogenous determination of the...

Testing for structural breaks and identifying their location is essential for econometric modeling. In this paper, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) approach is used in order to perform these tasks. Breaks are defined as the data points where the underlying Markov Chain switches from one state to...

The problem of modeling housing prices has attracted considerable attention due to its importance in terms of households' wealth and in terms of public revenues through taxation. One of the main concerns raised in both the theoretical and the empirical literature is the existence of spatial...

The no arbitrage relation between futures and spot prices implies an analogous relation between futures and spot volatilities as measured by daily range. Long memory features of the range-based volatility estimators of the two series are analyzed, and their joint dynamics are modeled via a...

This paper presents some limit theorems for certain functionals of moving averages of semimartingales plus noise, which are observed at high frequency. Our method generalizes the pre-averaging approach (see [13],[11]) and provides consistent estimates for various characteristics of general...

We consider a new class of estimators for volatility functionals in the setting of frequently observed Itô diffusions which are disturbed by i.i.d. noise. These statistics extend the approach of pre-averaging as a general method for the estimation of the integrated volatility in the presence of...

Forecasting using factor models based on large data sets have received ample attention due to the models’ ability to increase forecast accuracy with respect to a range of key macroeconomic variables in the US and the UK. However, forecasts based on such factor models do not uniformly...

We propose a multivariate realised kernel to estimate the ex-post covariation of log-prices. We show this new consistent estimator is guaranteed to be positive semi-definite and is robust to measurement noise of certain types and can also handle non-synchronous trading. It is the first estimator...

Low birthweight outcomes are associated with large social and economic costs, and therefore the possible determinants of low birthweight are of great interest. One such determinant which has received considerable attention is maternal smoking. From an economic perspective this is in part due to...

This paper develops an asymptotic estimation theory for nonlinear autoregressive models with conditionally heteroskedastic errors. We consider a functional coefficient autoregression of order p (AR(p)) with the conditional variance specified as a general nonlinear first order generalized...