Empirical evidence from time series methods which assume the usual I(0)/I(1) paradigm suggests that the efficient market hypothesis, stating that spot and futures prices of a commodity should cointegrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold. However, these statistical methods are...

Easley, Lopez de Prado and O'Hara introduce VPIN as a real-time indicator of order flow toxicity. They find it useful for monitoring order fl ow imbalances and signaling impending market turmoil, exemplified by the ash crash. They also deem VPIN a good forecaster of short-term volatility. In...

We propose a simple model in which realized stock market return volatility and implied volatility backed out of option prices are subject to common level shifts corresponding to movements between bull and bear markets. The model is estimated using the Kalman filter in a generalization to the...

This paper discusses identification problems in the fractionally cointegrated system of Johansen (2008) and Johansen and Nielsen (2012). It is shown that several equivalent re-parameterizations of the model associated with different fractional integration and cointegration parameters may exist...

Economic theories are often fitted directly to data to avoid possible model selection biases. We show that embedding a theory model that specifies the correct set of m relevant exogenous variables, x{t}, within the larger set of m+k candidate variables, (x{t},w{t}), then selection over the...

This paper considers asymptotic inference in the multivariate BEKK model based on (co-)variance targeting (VT). By defi?nition the VT estimator is a two-step estimator and the theory presented is based on expansions of the modifi?ed likelihood function, or estimating function, corresponding to...

The main contribution of this paper is to propose a bootstrap method for inference on integrated volatility based on the pre-averaging approach of Jacod et al. (2009), where the pre-averaging is done over all possible overlapping blocks of consecutive observations. The overlapping nature of the...

We investigate the long-run stock-bond correlation using a novel model that combines the dynamic conditional correlation model with the mixed-data sampling approach. The long-run correlation is affected by both macro-finance variables (historical and forecasts) and the lagged realized...

An estimator of the ex-post covariation of log-prices under asynchronicity and microstructure noise is proposed. It uses the Cholesky factorization on the correlation matrix in order to exploit the heterogeneity in trading intensity to estimate the different parameters sequentially with as many...