We propose a simulated maximum likelihood estimator for dynamic models based on non-parametric kernel methods. Our method is designed for models without latent dynamics from which one can simulate observations but cannot obtain a closed-form representation of the likelihood function. Using the...

The expected value of sums of squared intraday returns (realized variance) gives rise to a least squares regression which adapts itself to the assumptions of the noise process and allows for a joint inference on integrated volatility (IV), noise moments and price-noise relations. In the iid...

We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set 248 multivariate models that differ in their...

We propose a unified framework for estimating integrated variances and covariances based on simple OLS regressions, allowing for a general market microstructure noise specification. We show that our estimators can outperform, in terms of the root mean squared error criterion, the most recent and...

This paper considers the performance of different long-memory dynamic models when forecasting volatility in the stock market using implied volatility as an exogenous variable in the information set. Observed volatility is separated into its continuous and jump components in a framework that...

Counting processes provide a very flexible framework for modeling discrete events occurring over time. Estimation and interpretation is easy, and links to more familiar approaches are at hand. The key is to think of data as "event histories," a record of times of switching between states in a...

Recent research has focused on modelling asset prices by Itô semimartingales. In such a modelling framework, the quadratic variation consists of a continuous and a jump component. This paper is about inference on the jump part of the quadratic variation, which can be estimated by the difference...

This paper studies the effect of time–inhomogeneous jumps and leverage type effects on realised variance calculations when the logarithmic asset price is given by a Lévy–driven stochastic volatility model. In such a model, the realised variance is an inconsistent estimator of the integrated...

We study the skewness premium (SK) introduced by Bates (1991) in a general context using Lévy Processes. Under a symmetry condition Fajardo and Mordecki (2006) have obtained that SK is given by the Bate's x% rule. In this paper, we study SK under the absence of that symmetry condition. More...

We show that the compensation for rare events accounts for a large fraction of the equity and variance risk premia in the S&P 500 market index. The probability of rare events vary significantly over time, increasing in periods of high market volatility, but the risk premium for tail events...