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all variables proposed by theory, despite a broad set of fixed effects (FE). We find that both REERs are important and … multilateral resistances. Untangling normalization helps to get a better view of what is still unexplained by theory. …
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area sovereign debt crises. We find that macro and default-specific world factors are a primary source of default …
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literature. In contrast, studies on relative location tend to be weakly linked to theory, but apply relatively sophisticated … appropriateness of such models, and identify areas of potential concern. The rather weak linkage between theory and operational models …
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We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...
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