This paper brings together several important strands of the econometrics literature: errorcorrection, cointegration and dynamic factor models. It introduces the Factor-augmented Error Correction Model (FECM), where the factors estimated from a large set of variables in levels are jointly...

The ECB formulates its policy relying on two-pillars: the monetary pillar and alternative models of inflation. The two-pillars strategy has been seriously criticized and there is a chance that it will be reconsidered at some point in the future. This paper elaborates on this possibility,...

This paper investigates an array of nominal systems for the Russian economy, of domestic price level, import prices, exchange rates, money stock, barter, nominal wages, and output, and conducts I(1) and I(2) cointegration analyses. Post-stabilization monthly data are used, 1995:6-2001:5. The...

This paper is part of a larger project that questions the common notion of similarity in the Polish and Russian stabilization programs, which clearly brought about different results. It investigates an array of nominal systems for the Polish economy, of domestic price level, import prices,...

This study evaluates the economic impact of the proposed COMESA-SADC-EAC Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) on 26 African countries. It uses the global trade analysis project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and database to measure the static effects of the establishment of the...

International aid has an ambiguous effect on the macro-economy of the recipient country. To the extent that aid raises consumer expenditure, there will be some real exchange rate appreciation and a shift of resources away from traded goods production and into non-traded goods production....

Workers' remittance is a major source of foreign exchange earnings and plays an important role in the economy of Bangladesh. It accounts for 12% of GDP in 2010. This paper examines with annual data for 1971–2008, whether the flow of remittances is contributing positively to the development of...

This paper investigates the determinants of private investment in Senegal over the period of 1970-2000. It first tests the variables for unit root using two, relatively, new tests namely the Dickey-Fuller generalised least square de-trending test proposed by Elliot et al. (1996) and the...

The role of expectations for economic fluctuations has received considerable attention in recent business cycle analysis. We exploit Markov regime switching models to identify shocks in cointegrated structural vector autoregressions and investigate different identification schemes for bivariate...

In testing for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process it is important to take into account level shifts that have occurred in the sample period. Therefore the properties of estimators of the time period where a shift has taken place are investigated. The possible...