This article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warning models for...

This study evaluates the economic impact of the proposed COMESA-SADC-EAC Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) on 26 African countries. It uses the global trade analysis project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and database to measure the static effects of the establishment of the...

After more than two decades of inflation targeting in the world, it is important to evaluate if the adoption of this regime in a relevant developing country contributed to the creation of a better environment for the process of entrepreneurs' expectations formation. Brazil is part of an...

International aid has an ambiguous effect on the macro-economy of the recipient country. To the extent that aid raises consumer expenditure, there will be some real exchange rate appreciation and a shift of resources away from traded goods production and into non-traded goods production....

We explore bifurcation phenomena in the open-economy New Keynesian CGG Model based on Clarida et al. (2001, 2002). We find that the open economy framework can bring about more complex dynamics, along with a wider variety of qualitative behaviors and policy responses. Introducing parameters...

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the importance of the credit channel relative to the interest and exchange rate channels. It is motivated by increasing theoretical and empirical evidence that credit market conditions affect the propagation of cyclical...

This paper develops and estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Hong Kong economy. The model features short-run price rigidities generated by monopolistic competition and staggered reoptimization. We devote special attention to asset prices and wealth...

We analyze a relation between interest rate controls and equilibrium determinacy using a two-country model featuring traded and non-traded goods. In addition, parameters of preference and production may differ between the two countries. We find that macroeconomic stability strongly depends on...

This paper shows that in the short term both gold and crude oil prices positively influence each other. Interest rates have a negative influence on the future gold prices and a positive influence on the future crude oil prices. In the long run, a relationship exists whereby interest rates...