Fanelli, Luca; Sorge, Marco M. - Centro Studi di Economia e Finanza (CSEF) - 2015
A recent debate in the forecasting literature revolves around the inability of macroecono-metric models to improve on simple univariate predictors, since the onset of the so-called Great Moderation. This paper explores the consequences of equilibrium indeterminacy for quantitative forecasting...