Many empirical studies on credit spread determinants consider a single-regime model over the entire sample period and find limited explanatory power. We model the credit cycle independently from macroeconomic fundamentals using a Markov regime switching model. We show that accounting for...

This paper addresses the question of the selection of multivariate GARCH models in terms of variance matrix forecasting accuracy with a particular focus on relatively large scale problems. We consider 10 assets from NYSE and NASDAQ and compare 125 model based one-step-ahead conditional variance...

Using a real-time random regime shift technique, we identify and discuss two different regimes in the dynamics of credit spreads during 2002-2012: a liquidity regime and a default regime. Both regimes contribute to the patterns observed in credit spreads. The liquidity regime seems to explain...

A large number of parameterizations have been proposed to model conditional variance dynamics in a multivariate framework. However, little is known about the ranking of multivariate volatility models in terms of their forecasting ability. The ranking of multivariate volatility models is...

This paper proposes a systematic framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of permanent and transitory shocks on a system of "n" economic variables.

This paper prepared for the Handbook of Statistics (Vol.14: "Statistical Methods in Finance"), surveys the subject of stochastic volatility. the following subjects are covered: volatility in financial markets (instantaneous volatility of asset returns, implied volatilities in option prices and...

This paper prepared for the Handbook of Statistics (Vol.14: "Statistical Methods in Finance"), surveys the subject of stochastic volatility. The following subjects are covered: volatility in financial markets (instantaneous volatility of asset returns, implied volatilities in option prices and...

This paper proposes a systematic framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of permanent and transitory shocks on a system of "n" economic variables.

Recently there have been much discussion of the theory and applications of long memory processes. In this paper we consider the standard linear model y=X*b+u and assume that the variance covariance matrix of the errors being generated from an ARFIMA(0,d,0) model. Following Banerjee and Magnus...

We develop a Markov-switching GARCH model (MS-GARCH) wherein the conditional mean and variance switch in time from one GARCH process to another. The switching is governed by a hidden Markov chain. We provide sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity and existence of moments of the process....