This paper estimates a structural vector autoregression model to assess the dynamic effects of terrorism on output and prices in Israel over the post-1985 period. Long-run restrictions are used to obtain an interpretation of the effects of terrorism in terms of aggregate demand and supply...

This paper documents and explains the positive comovement between external and budget deficits for several developing countries. First, the covariance estimated from post-1960 time-series data is numerically positive for each of the 24 countries and statistically significant for almost all...

We study the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on the bilateral exchange rate between the U.S. and each of the G7 countries. We also estimate deviations from uncovered interest rate parity and exchange rate pass-through conditional on these shocks. The analysis is based on a structural...

We study the effects of tax shocks on the budget and external deficits for 16 industrialized countries over the post-1975 period. Our structural approach is based on a tractable small open-economy model where a tax cut innovation generates a budget deficit. In turn, the budget deficit affects...

Relatively little empirical evidence exists about countries’ external adjustment to changes in fiscal policy and, in particular, to changes in taxes. This paper addresses this question by measuring the effects of tax and government spending shocks on the current account and the real exchange...

This paper analyzes the empirical relations between equity premia and state-dependent consumption and market risks. These relations are derived from a flexible specification of the CCAPM with mixture distribution, which admits the existence of two regimes. Focusing on the market return, we find...

This paper analyzes the important time variation in U.S. aggregate portfolio allocations. To do so, we first use flexible descriptions of preferences and investment opportunities to derive optimal decision rules that nest tactical, myopic, and strategic portofolio allocations. We then compare...

We propose an empirical procedure, which exploits the conditional heteroscedasticity of fundamental disturbances, to test the targeting and orthogonality restrictions imposed in the recent VAR literature to identify monetary policy shocks. Based on U.S. monthly data for the post-1982 period, we...

In contrast to earlier work, we study the relation between the current account and interest rate differentials. To do so, we document the relation for international data. We then interpret this relation from a two-country, dynamic, general equilibrium environment. We finally confront the...

This letter presents and assesses a procedure to generate recursive measures of aggregate total wealth and portfolio return. Conceptually, the procedure is more flexible than the classical replacement cost and present value methods. Empirically, the procedure yields recursive measures that...