This paper presents and assesses a procedure to estimate conventional parameters characterizing fluctuations at the business cycle frequency, when the economic agents’ information set is superior to the econometrician’s one. Specifically, we first generalize the conditions under which the...

This paper presents and assesses a procedure to estimate conventional parameters characterizing fluctuations at the business cycle frequency, when the economic agents' information set is superior to the econometrician's one. Specifically, we first generalize the conditions under which the...

We propose a novel methodology for forecasting chaotic systems which uses information on local Lyapunov exponents (LLEs) to improve upon existing predictors by correcting for their inevitable bias. Using simulated data on the nearest-neighbor predictor, we show that accuracy gains can be...

In this paper, we match firm data to work history files in order to simultaneously estimate the wage and employment duration processes of a longitudinal sample of two million French workers employed in roughly one million firms and followed over twenty years. We use the particular structure of...

Basket options are among the most popular products of the new generation of exotic options. This attraction is explained by the fact that they can efficiently and simultaneously hedge a wide variety of intrinsically different financial risks. They are flexible enough to include all the risks...

We Present Several Small-Sample Results on the Distribution of Residuals and Estimators of the Disturbance Variance in Econometric Models. We Consider General Linear and Nonlinear Models with Stochastic Regressors and Possibly Nonlinear Restrictions on the Parameters. These Include...

Several Authors Have Discussed Recently the Limited Dependent Variable Regression Model with Serial Correlation Between Residuals. the Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimators Obtained by Ignoring Serial Correlation Altogether, Have Been Shown to Be Consistent. We Present Alternative Pseudo-Maximum...