This paper tackles the prediction of the probability and severity of US recessions. We employ parsimonious Probit models to estimate the probability of a recession h periods ahead, for h varying between 1 and 8 quarters. A novel goodness-of-fit measure derived from the Kullback-Leibler...

This paper presents a computable general equilibrium model (CGEM) able to measure the impacts of the affirmative action policy set up in South Africa. In order to decrease inequalities inherited from the former regime, the government encourages firms to employ Historically Disadvantaged Persons...

Much current debate focuses on the role of growth in alleviating poverty. However, the majority of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models used in poverty and inequality analysis are static in nature. The inability of this kind of model to account for growth (accumulation) effects makes them...

The paper employs an integrated CGE-microsimulation approach to analyze the poverty effects of tariff reduction. The results indicate that the tariff cuts implemented between 1994 and 2000 were generally poverty-reducing, primarily through the substantial reduction in consumer prices they...

We propose simple graphical methods to identify poverty-reducing marginal reforms of transfer programs. The methods are based on Program Dominance curves that display cumulative program benefits weighted by powers of poverty gaps. These curves can be decomposed simply as sums of targeting...

We propose a general cost-of-inequality approach that jointly integrates horizontal and vertical equity criteria in the assessment of poverty alleviation programs, with the strength of each criterion being captured through its own inequity-aversion parameter. This contrasts with the assessment...

The paper simulates the redistributive impact of three possible scenarios for the introduction of a basic income (BI, also sometimes called "citizens' income") in Québec. The simulations are revenue neutral at the joint provincial-federal government level. The first scenario assumes that a set...

Assessing whether distributional changes are "pro-poor" has become increasingly widespread in academic and policy circles. Starting from relatively general ethical axioms, this paper proposes simple graphical methods to test whether distributional changes are indeed pro-poor. Pro-poor standards...

Variations in aggregate poverty indices can be due to differences in average poverty intensity, to changes in the welfare distances between those poor of initially unequal welfare status, and/or to emerging disparities in welfare among those poor of initially similar welfare status. This note...