This paper addresses the question of the selection of multivariate GARCH models in terms of variance matrix forecasting accuracy with a particular focus on relatively large scale problems. We consider 10 assets from NYSE and NASDAQ and compare 125 model based one-step-ahead conditional variance...

A large number of parameterizations have been proposed to model conditional variance dynamics in a multivariate framework. However, little is known about the ranking of multivariate volatility models in terms of their forecasting ability. The ranking of multivariate volatility models is...

In the literature on tests of normality, much concern has been expressed over the problems associated with residual-based procedures. Indeed, the specialized tables of critical points which are needed to perform the tests have been derived for the location-scale model; hence reliance on...

This paper clarifies the empirical source of the debate on the effect of technology shocks on hours worked. We find that the contrasting conclusions from levels and differenced VAR specifications can be explained by a small, but important, low frequency co-movement between hours worked and...

Many empirical studies on credit spread determinants consider a single-regime model over the entire sample period and find limited explanatory power. We model the credit cycle independently from macroeconomic fundamentals using a Markov regime switching model. We show that accounting for...

Using a real-time random regime shift technique, we identify and discuss two different regimes in the dynamics of credit spreads during 2002-2012: a liquidity regime and a default regime. Both regimes contribute to the patterns observed in credit spreads. The liquidity regime seems to explain...

The detection of dangerous road sites is usually performed using empirical methods which focus on observed accident frequencies and/or proportions of accidents with a given feature. The most widely used detection tools have an empirical Bayes (EB) background. The EB approaches rely on the...

We use spline interpolation to approximate the subjective cumulative distribution function of an economic agent over the future realization of a continuous (possibly censored) random variable. The method proposed exploits information collected using a small number of probability questions on...

This paper tests for robust multidimensional poverty comparisons across six countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Two dimensions are considered, nutritional status and assets. The estimation of the asset index is based on two factorial analysis methods. The first...

This paper studies seemingly unrelated linear models with integrated regressors and stationary errors.