This study assesses the accuracy of the value-at-risk estimate (VaR). On the basis of posterior distributions of the unknown population parameters, we develop a confidence interval for VaR that reflects the genuine information available about the portfolios for which the VaR is calculated. This...

This paper investigates the presence of target-zone nonlinearities in the Pound Sterling/Deutsche Mark exchange rate for the period of the UK European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) membership, using data with frequency of every two days. Tests against general nonlinear specifications as well as...

This paper investigates the determinants of involuntary insolvency and acquisition in UK small and medium-sized companies. Using a competing risks model and data from the survey database of the ESRC CBR at the University of Cambridge, we draw specific attention to the impact of managerial...