This paper presents the theoretical development of new threshold autoregressive models based on trended time series. The theoretical arguments underlying the models are outlined and a nonlinear economic model is used to derive the specification of the empirical econometric models. Estimation and...

This paper deals with the issues of identification and estimation in the canonical model of contagion advanced in Pesaran and Pick (2007). The model is a two-equation nonlinear simultaneous equations system with endogenous dummy variables; it also represents an extension of univariate threshold...

This paper considers information criteria as model evaluation tools for nonlinear threshold models. Results concerning the consistency of information criteria in selecting the lag order of linear autoregressive models are extended to nonlinear autoregressive threshold models. Extensive Monte...