A small quarterly macroeconometric model of the UK is estimated over the period 1965Q1 to 1995Q4 in eight core variables: domestic and foreign outputs, domestic and foreign prices (both measured relative to oil prices), the nominal effective exchange rate, nominal domestic and foreign interest...

This paper considers the problem of cross-sectional aggregation when the underlying micro behavioural relations are characterised by general non-linear specifications. It focuses on forecasting the aggregates, and shows how an optimal aggregate model can be derived by minimising the mean squared...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...