This paper explores the impact of earnings subsidies on job duration and wage growth. We develop an analytical framework that predicts that convex subsidies increase job turnover and affect within-job and between-job wage growth. This framework is used to analyze the effects of the Canadian...

In this paper, the effects of social security in a simple model of endogenous growth with alternative motives of having children are analyzed. It shows how the effects of social security depend on the size of the social security tax, the motive to have children, and the pattern of...

Canada has a large Income Security system for retirement that provides significant and widely varying disincentives to work at older ages.We provide an empirical analysis of the retirement incentives of the Canadian Income Security system using a newadministrative database.We find that the work...

Incorporating heterogeneity in preference to having children into an overlapping generations model of a small open economy, we examine the effects of changes in the size of payasyougo (PAYG) social security on fertility choices of individuals and population growth of the economy. It is shown...

This paper shows how the role of the market, the state and the family in providing oldage support has evolved over time with changes in factors such as the reliability and the effectiveness of family support, the interest rate, the cost of public funds, and earning inequality. Agents with...

This paper studies the normative problem of redistribution between individuals who differ in their lifespans. We discuss aspects related to the objective function and argue that aversion to multiperiod inequality should be taken into account. Then, we study the properties of the social optimum...

This paper discusses the welfare implications of a pay-as-you-go pension reform by introducing a child benefit in an endogenous fertility setting. In the model of a small open economy, higher fertility is associated with a reduction of lifetime labour supply. The optimum share of...

Quantifying the probability of U.S. recessions has become increasingly important since August 2007. In a data-rich environment, this paper is the first to apply a Probit model to common factors extracted from a large set of explanatory variables to model and forecast recession probability. The...

The pattern of decay of forecast content (or skill) with increasing horizon is well known for many types of meteorological forecasts; by contrast, little generally accepted information about these patterns or content horizons is available for economic variables. In this paper we estimate content...

Empirical evidence linking monetary aggregates to variables such as inflation and economic growth has weakened over the past two decades. In this study we re-examine these relationships by creating composite monetary aggregates that switch among existing monetary aggregates, using quarterly data...