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What causes banking crises? : an empirical investigation for the world economy

Le, Vo Phuong Mai; Meenagh, David; Minford, Patrick; … - 2013

We add the Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist model to a world model consisting of the US, the Eurozone and the Rest of the … World in order to explore the causes of the banking crisis. We test the model against linear-detrended data and reestimate … to counteract such a shock as happened in this sample. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009738907

What causes banking crises? : an empirical investigation

Le, Vo Phuong Mai; Meenagh, David; Minford, Patrick - 2012

's implied residuals on US unfiltered data since 1984 to replicate how the model predicts the crisis. The main banking shock … tracks the unfolding 'sub-prime' shock, which appears to have been authored mainly by US government intervention. This shock … shock plays a key role. Crises occur when there is a 'run' of bad shocks; based on this sample they occur on average once …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009563557

Understanding UK trade agreements with the EU and other countries

Minford, Patrick - 2016

customs union for unilateral free trade, as a small country within the world market, it will therefore make gains according to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011471738

Free Trade under Brexit : why its benefits have been widely underestimated

Minford, Patrick - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012602305

Targeting moments for calibration compared with indirect inference

Meenagh, David; Minford, Patrick; Xu, Yongdeng - 2022

A common practice in estimating parameters in DSGE models is to Önd a set that when simulated gets close to an average of certain data moments; the modelís simulated performance for other moments is then compared to the data for these as an informal test of the model. We call this procedure...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014433313

Modern Monetary Theory : the post-Crisis economy misunderstood?

Liu, Chunping; Minford, Patrick; Ou, Zhirong - 2022

We set out Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) as a full DSGE model, and test it by indirect inference on post Financial Crisis US data, alongside a standard New Keynesian, NK, model. The MMT model is rejected, while the NK model has a high probability. We then evaluate replacing the Öscal and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014433314

How good are out of sample forecasting tests on DSGE models?

Minford, Patrick; Xu, Yongdeng; Zhou, Peng - 2014

Out-of-sample forecasting tests of DSGE models against time-series benchmarks such as an unrestricted VAR are increasingly used to check a) the specification b) the forecasting capacity of these models. We carry out a Monte Carlo experiment on a widely-used DSGE model to investigate the power of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010380944

A DSGE model of China

Dai, Li; Minford, Patrick; Zhou, Peng - 2014

We use available methods for testing macro models to evaluate a model of China over the period from Deng Xiaoping's reforms up until the crisis period. Bayesian ranking methods are heavily influenced by controversial priors on the degree of price/wage rigidity. When the overall models are tested...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010358430

Testing DSGE models by indirect inference and other methods : some Monte Carlo experiments

Le, Vo Phuong Mai; Meenagh, David; Minford, Patrick; … - 2012

Using Monte Carlo experiments, we examine the performance of Indirect Inference tests of DSGE models, usually versions of the Smets-Wouters New Keynesian model of the US postwar period. We compare these with tests based on direct inference (using the Likelihood Ratio), and on the Del...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009563550

Small sample performance of indirect inference on DSGE models

Le, Vo Phuong Mai; Meenagh, David; Minford, Patrick; … - 2015

Using Monte Carlo experiments, we examine the performance of indirect inference tests of DSGE models in small samples, using various models in widespread use. We compare these with tests based on direct inference (using the Likelihood Ratio). We find that both tests have power so that a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010470917