Le, Vo Phuong Mai; Meenagh, David; Minford, Patrick - 2012
's implied residuals on US unfiltered data since 1984 to replicate how the model predicts the crisis. The main banking shock … tracks the unfolding 'sub-prime' shock, which appears to have been authored mainly by US government intervention. This shock … shock plays a key role. Crises occur when there is a 'run' of bad shocks; based on this sample they occur on average once …