The 2007-2008 financial crises has made it painfully obvious that markets may quickly turn illiquid.Moreover, recent experience has shown that distress and lack of active trading can jump “around”between seemingly unconnected parts of the financial system contributing to transforming...

We show that predictable covariances between means and variances of stock returns may have a first order effect on portfolio composition. In an international asset menu that includes both European and North American small capitalization equity indices, we find that a three-state, heteroskedastic...

We calculate the ex-post portfolio performance for an investor who diversifies among stocks, bonds, REITS and cash. Simulations are performed for two alternative asset allocation frameworks – classical and Bayesian - and for scenarios involving two different samples and six different...

We calculate optimal portfolio choices for a long-horizon, risk-averse European investor who diversifies among stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash, when excess asset returns are predictable. Simulations are performed for scenarios involving different risk aversion levels, horizons, and...

Welfare gains to long-horizon investors may derive from time diversification that exploits non-zero intertemporal return correlations associated with predictable returns. Real estate may thus become more desirable if its returns are negatively serially correlated. While it could be important for...

This paper examines the ex-post performance of optimal portfolios with predictable returns, when the investor horizon ranges from one month to ten years. Due to the investor's ability to anticipate shifts from bull to bear markets, predictability involves the risk premium, volatility and...

Recent research [e.g., DeMiguel, Garlappi and Uppal, (2009a), Rev. Fin. Studies] has cast doubts on the out-of-sample performance of optimizing portfolio strategies relative to a naive, equally-weighted ones. However, most of the existing results concern the simple case in which an investor has...

Do equity markets help diversifying away industry-related labor income risk? This paper reconsiders the hedging role of stock markets by focusing on international equity diversification, rather than domestic asset allocation, and on industry wage, rather than individual labor income. We test for...