We compare a number of data-rich prediction methods that are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting with a lesser known alternative: partial least squares (PLS) regression. In this method, linear, orthogonal combinations of a large number of predictor variables are constructed such that the...

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

We propose a class of simple rank-based tests for the null hypothesis of a unit root. This class is indexed by the choice of a reference density g, which needs not coincide with the unknown actual innovation density f. The validity of these tests, in terms of exact finite sample size, is...

The time-series approach used in the minimum wage literature essentially aims to estimate a treatment effect of increasing the minimum wage. In this paper, we employ a novel approach based on aggregate time-series data that allows us to determine if minimum wage changes have significant effects...

We propose two new jump-robust estimators of integrated variance based on highfrequency return observations. These MinRV and MedRV estimators provide an attractive alternative to the prevailing bipower and multipower variation measures. Specifically, the MedRV estimator has better theoretical...

This paper establishes stylized facts about the cyclicality of real consumer wages and real producer wages in Germany. As detrending methods we apply the deterministic trend model, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Baxter-King filter and the structural time...

In 2002 we published a paper in which we used state space time series methods to analyse the teenage employment‐federal minimum wage relationship in the US (Bazen and Marimoutou, 2002). The study used quarterly data for the 46 year period running from 1954 to 1999. We detected a small,...

The econometrics literature contains a variety of two-sided tests for unknown breakpoints in time-series models with one or more parameters. This paper derives an analogous one-sided test that takes into account the direction of the change for a single parameter. In particular, we propose a sup...

We propose a class of distribution-free rank-based tests for the null hypothesis of a unit root. This class is indexed by the choice of a reference density g, which needs not coincide with the unknown actual innovation density f. The validity of these tests, in terms of exact finite sample size,...

To accommodate the inhomogenous character of financial time series over longer time periods, standard parametric models can be extended by allowing their coefficients to vary over time. Focusing on conditional heteroscedasticity models, we discuss various strategies to identify and estimate...