This article uses a sequentialized experimental design to select simulation input combinations for global optimization, based on Kriging (also called Gaussian process or spatial correlation modeling); this Kriging is used to analyze the input/output data of the simulation model (computer code)....

This article presents a novel combination of robust optimization developed in mathematical programming, and robust parameter design developed in statistical quality control. Robust parameter design uses metamodels estimated from experiments with both controllable and environmental inputs...

Adjustable robust optimization (ARO) is a technique to solve dynamic (multistage) optimization problems. In ARO, the decision in each stage is a function of the information accumulated from the previous periods on the values of the uncertain parameters. This information, however, is often...

This chapter surveys two methods for the optimization of real-world systems that are modelled through simulation. These methods use either linear regression metamodels, or Kriging (Gaussian processes). The metamodel type guides the design of the experiment; this design fixes the input...

This tutorial reviews the design and analysis of simulation experiments. These experiments may have various goals: validation, prediction, sensitivity analysis, optimization (possibly robust), and risk or uncertainty analysis. These goals may be realized through metamodels. Two types of...

In this chapter we present Kriging also known as a Gaussian process (GP) model which is a mathematical interpolation method. To select the input combinations to be simulated, we use Latin hypercube sampling (LHS); we allow uniform and non-uniform distributions of the simulation inputs. Besides...

We derive new statistical tests for leave-one-out cross-validation of Kriging models. Graphically, we present these tests as scatterplots augmented with confidence intervals. We may wish to avoid extrapolation, which we define as prediction of the output for a point that is a vertex of the...

Sequential bifurcation (or SB) is an efficient and effective factor-screening method; i.e., SB quickly identifies the important factors (inputs) in experiments with simulation models that have very many factors — provided the SB assumptions are valid. The specific SB assumptions are: (i) a...

An important goal of simulation is optimization of the corresponding real system. We focus on simulation models with multiple responses (out-puts), selecting one response as the variable to be maximized or minimized while the remaining responses satisfy prespecified thresholds; i.e., we focus on...

In this paper we investigate global optimization for black-box simulations using metamodels to guide this optimization. As a novel metamodel we introduce intrinsic Kriging, for either deterministic or random simulation. For deterministic simulation we study the famous 'e fficient global...