We discuss the empirical importance of long term cyclical effects in the volatility of financial returns. Following Amado and Terasvirta (2009), Cizek and Spokoiny (2009) and others, we consider a general conditionally heteroscedastic process with stationarity property distorted by a...

This paper presents some new results on exogeneity in models with latent variables. The concept of exogeneity is extended to the class of models with latent variables, in which a subset of parameters and latent variables is of interest. Exogeneity is discussed from the Bayesian point of view. We...

We develop a fully Bayesian framework for analysis and comparison of two competing approaches to modelling daily prices on different markets. The first approach, prevailing in financial econometrics, amounts to assuming that logarithms of prices behave like a multivariate random walk; this...

Often daily prices on different markets are not all observable. The question is whether we should exclude from modelling the days with prices not available on all markets (thus loosing some information and implicitly modifying the time axis) or somehow complete the missing (non-existing) prices....

The paper discusses Bayesian productivity analysis of 27 EU Member States, USA, Japan and Switzerland. Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Analysis and a twostage structural decomposition of output growth are used to trace sources of output growth. This allows us to separate the impacts of capital...

The global financial and European debt crises exposed the need for a new approach to fiscal modeling to support decision making analytically. With this purpose, in the following paper we present a macro-fiscal model. By capturing macro-fiscal interlinkages, especially those between fiscal...

The paper is devoted to discussing consequences of the so-called Frisch-Waugh Theorem to posterior inference and Bayesian model comparison. We adopt a generalised normal linear regression framework and weaken its assumptions in order to cover non-normal, jointly elliptical sampling...

The s-period ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) for a portfolio of dimension n is considered and its Bayesian analysis is discussed. The VaR assessment can be based either on the n-variate predictive distribution of future returns on individual assets, or on the univariate Bayesian model for the...

In the paper, we document how conditional dependencies observed in the FOREX market change during a trading day. The analysis is performed for the pairs (GBP/EUR, USD/EUR) and (GBP/USD, EUR/USD) of exchange rates. We consider daily returns calculated using the exchange rates quoted at different...

Bartlett’s paradox has been taken to imply that using improper priors results in Bayes factors that are not well defined, preventing model comparison in this case. We use well understood principles underlying what is already common practice, to demonstrate that this implication is not true for...