Simulations with dynamic, single-country, CGE models typically imply that reductions in domestic demand, e.g. a cut in investment, generate increases in exports and reductions in imports facilitated by real depreciation. However, currently in the U.S. a large reduction in investment is occurring...

We use MVN - a dynamic CGE model of the Vietnamese economy - to investigate the Vietnamese economy's rapid growth and structural change over the period 1996 to 2003. We do this in two steps. First, we estimate changes in variables representing production technologies, consumer preferences,...

China is experiencing rapid population ageing with the proportion of the population aged 65 and above projected to increase almost threefold between 2010 and 2050. The growth of the working age population is expected to stop approximately in 2015 and to turn strongly negative. China's low...

The main ideas in this paper are: (a) that CGE models can be used in forecasting; and (b) that forecasts matter for policy analysis. We demonstrate these ideas by describing an application of MONASH, a dynamic CGE model of Australia, to the Australian motor vehicle industry over the period 1987...

This paper outlines two potential approaches to incorporating business taxation and allowances into a model of a firm to determine the effect of tax policy changes on the firm's behaviour. Following Auerbach, King and Benge, we first develop a model in which the firm maximises the value of its...

A social accounting matrix is a framework for organising information about income, expenditure and financial flows in the economy. This paper describes a methodology for compiling such a matrix for the Australian economy as it existed in 1996-97. It distinguishes between five institutions,...

The paper uses MONASH, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, to investigate the impact on the Australian economy of a 50 per cent increase in the skilled migrant intake over the period 2005-2025. The primary purpose of the modelling it to identify how the labour market might absorb an...

The problem of endowing large applied general equilibrium models with numerical values for parameters is formidable. For example, a complete set of own- and cross-price elasticities of demand for the ORANI model involves 228 squared, or about 60 K items. Invoking the minimal assumptions that...

In 1994, the Australian National Training Authority (ANTA) was established by agreement between the Commonwealth, State and Territory governments. Central to the agreement is the National Strategy for Vocational Education and Training (VET) which is organized around the four main themes of...