As a group, market forecasters are egregiously overconfident. In conformity to the dynamic model of overconfidence of Gervais and Odean (2001), successful forecasters have become more overconfident. What's more, more experienced forecasters have learned to be overconfident, and hence are more...

This documentation presents the scale characteristics of a new scale measuring people's tendency to forgive. The tendency to forgive is understood here as an individual disposition to forgive other people when one has suffered injustice or harm from them. The scale is a German translation of a...

Do financial market analysts use structural economic models when forecasting exchange rates? This is the leading question analysed in this apper. In contrast to other studies we use expectations instead of realised data. Therefore we analyse the implicit structural models forecasters have in...

This paper presents structural estimates for a bargaining model which nests the right-to-manage, the efficient wage bargaining, the seniority and the standard neo- classical labor demand model as special cases. In contrast to most existing models, our approach accounts for heterogeneous skill...

This paper describes simple econometric methods for the analysis of credit risk and applies them to a data set obtained from credit files taken from six large German universal banks. The paper focuses on (i) binary and ordered probit/logit models which enable the credit analyst to quantify the...

No other area of the German economy has developed so emphatically in the past ten years as that of business-related services. Regardless their growing importance, business-related services still play only a minor role in official statistics. Above all, official statistics do not provide...