We examine changes in banks' market-to-book ratios over the last decade, focusing on the dramatic and persistent declines witnessed during the financial crisis. The extent of the decline and its persistence cannot be explained by the delayed recognition of losses. Rather, it is declines in the...

The protection of bank debt and the targeting of risk-promoting mortgage subsidies are the primary sources of systemic risk in banking systems around the world. These two threats are related. Deposit insurance and other bank protection creates rents outside the normal budgetary process that...

In his review of Fed history, Allan Meltzer points to two types of deficiencies that have been primarily responsible for the Fed's falling short of its objectives: adherence to bad ideas (especially its susceptibility to intellectual fads); and politicization, which has led it to purposely stray...

We review the bank regulatory and supervisory practices of the National Banking Era and argue that their primary focus was both micro- and macro-prudential. Regulatory limits on real estate lending and large required cash holdings focused on systemic risk issues and successfully limited serious...

Reducing systemic liquidity risk related to seasonal swings in loan demand was one reason for the founding of the Federal Reserve System. Existing evidence on the post-Federal Reserve increase in the seasonal volatility of aggregate lending and the decrease in seasonal interest rate swings...

We develop a classification methodology for the context and content of news articles to predict risk and return in stock markets in 51 developed and emerging economies. A parsimonious summary of news, including topic-specific sentiment, frequency, and unusualness (entropy) of word flow, predicts...

This paper offers a historical perspective on the evolution of central banks as lenders of last resort (LOLR). Countries differ in the statutory powers of the LOLR, which is the outcome of a political bargain. Collateralized LOLR lending as envisioned by Bagehot (1873) requires five key legal...

Voters punish incumbent Presidential candidates for contractions in the local (county-level) supply of mortgage credit during market-wide contractions of credit, but they do not reward them for expansions in mortgage credit supply in boom times. Our primary focus is the Presidential election of...

Economic theories posit that bank liability insurance is designed as serving the public interest by mitigating systemic risk in the banking system through liquidity risk reduction. Political theories see liability insurance as serving the private interests of banks, bank borrowers, and...

We develop a theory of bank liquidity (cash reserve) requirements. Because cash is both observable and riskless, greater cash holdings improve bank incentives to manage risk in the remaining, non-cash portfolio of risky assets. In a model with a single bank, cash is held voluntarily to stem...