Deviations of policy interest rates from the levels implied by the Taylor rule have been persistent before the financial crisis and increased especially after the turn of the century. Compared to the Taylor benchmark, policy rates were often too low. This paper provides evidence that both...

Over the last decade, agent-based models in economics have reached a state of maturity that brought the tasks of statistical inference and goodness-of-fit of such models on the agenda of the research community. While most available papers have pursued a frequentist approach adopting either...

This paper analyzes and quantifies the idea of model risk in the environment of internal modelbuilding. We define various types of model risk including estimation risk, model risk in distributionand model risk in functional form. By the quantification of these concepts we analyzethe impact of...