In this work we propose the construction of optimized forecast-portfolios where analysts are thought of as “assets” with specific characteristics that may be combined in portfolios. The analysts’ forecasts were made about the German stock market index DAX on a 6-month horizon as provided...

Model selection – choosing the relevant variables and structures – is a central task in econometrics. Given a limited number of observations, estimation and inference depend on this choice. A frequently treated model-selection problem arises in multivariate autoregressive models, where the...

This paper compares quasi Monte Carlo methods, in particular so-called (t, m, s)-nets, with classical Monte Carlo approaches for simulating econometric time-series models. Quasi Monte Carlo methods have found successful application in many fields, such as physics, image processing, and the...

This paper compares quasi Monte Carlo methods, in particularso-called (t, m, s)-nets, with classical Monte Carlo approaches forsimulating econometric time-series models. Quasi Monte Carlomethods have found successful application in many fields, such asphysics, image processing, and the...