We propose a stylized exchange rate model based on diversity and weight ofopinion. Our model departs from standard assumptions in that we allow forheterogeneous agents. We show that such a model can explain both the observedvolatility and the persistence of real and nominal exchange rate...

A large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the forward rate is not an optimal predictor of the spot rate. However, there is evidence that the term structure of forward premia contains valuable information for forecasting...