This paper discusses a time-series model for daily tax revenues. The model is an unobserved-components model with trend and seasonal components that vary over time. The seasonalities for inter-month and intra-month movements are modelled using stochastic cubic splines. The model is made...

This paper discusses computationally efficient methods for exact maximum-likelihood estimation of parameters in state-space models. The proposed strategy is based on direct maximisation of the likelihood function, and it can be applied to a wide range of practical univariate and multivariate...