The one-sector neoclassical growth model (Solow, 1956,RES) can generate only simple dynamics. The dynamic properties of the Solow model follow from the saving behaviour and the neoclassical technology. As shown by Day (1982, AER), when average savings are allowed to vary, the discrete-time...

In this note a one-state, one-control variable quadratic linear problem with robust control and discount factor is developed to examine the optimal response of the first-period control to changes in future model uncertainty. A change in future model uncertainty has an effect on the optimal...

We document that the expectations puzzle characterising US yield data is strikingly dependent on the monetary policy regime. We then estimate an affine term-structure model built on a parsimonious macroeconomic setup over the 1970-2001 sample. The model allows us to relate deviations from the...

Time series with long-memory behavior have recently received much attention. Much interest attaches to parameter estimation in the ARFIMA model by considering different situations of this process, and specifically when there are missing observations. This is the focus of this paper. To estimate...

Price forecasting and trading strategies modelling are examined with major international stock indexes under different time horizons. Results demonstrate that an accurate prediction is equally important as a stable saving rate for long-term survivability. The best economic performances are...

Foreign exchange markets regularly display severe bubbles. This paper explores whether or not so-called target zone interventions are an effective tool for central banks to stabilize the exchange rate. We define such intervention operations as buying/selling an undervalued/overvalued currency...

The mixture of two already known soft computing technics, like Genetic Algorithms and Neural Networks (NN) in Financial modeling, takes a new approach in the search for the best variables involving an Econometric model using a Neural Network. This new approach helps to recognice the importance...

Several papers have documented how the reaction function of the U.S. monetary authority has been passive, and destabilising, before Volcker"s appointment, and active and stabilising since then. In this paper we first compare the two sub-periods in terms of several key business-cycle 'stylised...

The central piece of the New Keynesian Phillips curve is a model of price setting with nominal rigidities that implies that the dynamics of inflation is well explained by the evolution of real marginal costs. The objective of this paper is to analyze whether this model of inflation dynamics has...

This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate linear models perform about as well for almost every...