In this paper, we examine the cost of insurance against model uncertainty for the Euro area considering four alternative reference models, all of which are used for policy-analysis at the ECB. We find that maximal insurance across this model range in terms of a Minimax policy comes at moderate...

In this paper we consider expected value and mean variance optimization of a general forward--looking stochastic model. The problem is transformed into a general--nonlinear programming problem by adding extra constraints, which restrict the policy maker to commit to a certain policy. Based on...

This paper presents a numerical nonlinear dynamic programming algorithm for solving so-called optimal learning or adaptive control problems. These are decision problems with unknown parameters where the decisionmaker updates beliefs by Bayes rule. The updating equations are nonlinear. As a...