The conference papers and panel discussion explored a number of issues bearing on monetary policy design and operation in an environment of very low nominal interest rates.

Policymakers here and abroad cannot lose sight of a fundamental truth: In a world of separate currencies that can fluctuate against each other over time, each country’s central bank determines its inflation rate. If the FOMC were to allow the U.S. economy to run beyond its sustainable...

The inflation of the 1970s was a marked deviation from America's typical peacetime historical pattern as a hard-money country. We should expect America to continue to be a hard-money--low inflation--country in the future, at least in peacetime. The low rate of future inflation that we thus...

This paper explores several issues concerning a possible zero lower bound (ZLB) including its theoretical rationale; the magnitude of effects of low sustained inflation on real interest rates; the validity of analyzing monetary policy in models with no monetary variables; and the dynamic...

This paper provides a broad overview of the potential impact of low inflation (deflation) on U.S. financial markets and institutions. It is argued that the contemporary experience of Japan and the historical experience of the United States in the 1920s and 1930s offer only limited insights into...

This paper surveys the literature since 1993 on pseudo out-of-sample evaluation of inflation forecasts in the United States and conducts an extensive empirical analysis that recapitulates and clarifies this literature using a consistent data set and methodology. The literature review and...

Among the many unusual aspects of life in a very-low-inflation economy that might have been discussed, attention here has focussed on the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. That was a wise choice, I think, for the conduct of monetary policy at or near zero nominal interest rates raises...