The paper analyzes the causal effects of the business cycle on crime. Among the main conclusions are that robbery and …. The paper begins with a discussion of causal mechanisms linking economic conditions to crime and violence, both overall … and for youths. We investigate the effect of short-term fluctuations in economic activity on crime and violence (and on …

estimate the aggregate effects of a federal tax increase on rates of injury fatality and crime. We provide evidence that the …) reduced injury deaths by 4.5% (6480 deaths), in 1991, and had a still larger effect on violent crime. …