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Herrera, Helios - 2014

We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments' popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458321

Corona politics : the cost of mismanaging pandemics

Herrera, Helios; Konradt, Maximilian; Ordoñez, Guillermo; … - In: Covid economics : vetted and real-time papers (2020) 50, pp. 3-32

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012311870

China as an international lender of last resort

Horn, Sebastian; Parks, Bradley; Reinhart, Carmen M.; … - 2023 - First draft: March 2023

This paper shows that China has launched a new global system for cross-border rescue lending to countries in debt distress. We build the first comprehensive dataset on China’s overseas bailouts between 2000 and 2021 and provide new insights into China’s growing role in the global financial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247738

World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles : An Empirical Investigation

Fernández, Andrés - 2016

intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This … paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world … disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455847

Global Cycles : Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Reinhart, Carmen M. - 2016

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456715

Sovereign debt in the 21st century

Mitchener, Kris; Trebesch, Christoph - 2021 - This version: September 2022

How will sovereign debt markets evolve in the 21st century? We survey how the literature has responded to the eurozone debt crisis, placing “lessons learned” in historical perspective. The crisis featured: (i) the return of debt problems to advanced economies; (ii) a bank-sovereign...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013426466

Exportweltmeister : Germany's foreign investment returns in international comparison

Hünnekes, Franziska; Konradt, Maximilian; Schularick, … - 2023 - Revised version: April 2023

In the past decade, Germany has been the world champion in exporting capital (“Exportweltmeister”). No other country …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014276058

Sovereign bonds since Waterloo

Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph - 2021 - This draft: December2021

This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. Our main insight is that, as in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012807817