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Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers

Ha, Jongrim - 2020

We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479322

Thresholds in the Process of International Financial Integration

Kose, M. Ayhan - 2009

, however, is that there seem to be certain "threshold" levels of financial and institutional development that an economy needs …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463732

Does Openness to International Financial Flows Raise Productivity Growth?

Kose, M. Ayhan - 2008

Economic theory has identified a number of channels through which openness to international financial flows could raise productivity growth. However, while there is a vast empirical literature analyzing the impact of financial openness on output growth, far less attention has been paid to its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464090

Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?

Kose, M. Ayhan - 2008

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups -- industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464278

Financial Globalization : A Reappraisal

Kose, M. Ayhan - 2006

The literature on the benefits and costs of financial globalization for developing countries has exploded in recent years, but along many disparate channels with a variety of apparently conflicting results. We attempt to provide a unified conceptual framework for organizing this vast and growing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466181

Restructuring sovereign bonds : holdouts, haircuts and the effectiveness of CACs

Fang, Chuck; Schumacher, Julian; Trebesch, Christoph - 2021 - This version: November 2020

higher haircuts see higher holdout rates, and the same is true for small bonds and those issued under foreign law. Collective …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012405397

Global recessions

Kose, M. Ayhan; Sugawara, Naotaka; Terrones, Marco E. - 2020

The world economy has experienced four global recessions over the past seven decades: in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009 … internationally, with severe economic and financial disruptions in many countries around the world. The 2009 global recession, set off …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012230745

World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles : An Empirical Investigation

Fernández, Andrés - 2016

intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This … paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world … disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455847

Global Cycles : Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Reinhart, Carmen M. - 2016

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456715

Coping with disasters : two centuries of international official lending

Horn, Sebastian; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph - 2020

Official (government-to-government) lending is much larger than commonly known, often surpassing total private cross-border capital flows, especially during disasters such as wars, financial crises and natural catastrophes. We assemble the first comprehensive long-run dataset of official...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012233649