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Calvo, Guillermo A. - 2000

The Asian crisis took place against a background of exchange rate regimes that were characterized as soft pegs. This has led many analysts to conclude that the peg did it' and that emerging markets (EMs) should just say no' to pegged exchange rates. We present evidence that EMs are very...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470725

Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Sovereign Risk

Bianchi, Javier - 2020

In the past three decades, governments in emerging markets have accumulated large amounts of international reserves, especially those with fixed exchange rates. We propose a theory of reserve accumulation that can account for these facts. Using a model of endogenous sovereign default with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481517

Corona politics : the cost of mismanaging pandemics

Herrera, Helios; Konradt, Maximilian; Ordoñez, Guillermo; … - 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic is a major test for governments around the world. We study the political consequences of (mis …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012269818

Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?

Kose, M. Ayhan - 2008

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups -- industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464278

Political Booms, Financial Crises

Herrera, Helios - 2014

We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments' popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458321

Corona politics : the cost of mismanaging pandemics

Herrera, Helios; Konradt, Maximilian; Ordoñez, Guillermo; … - In: Covid economics : vetted and real-time papers (2020) 50, pp. 3-32

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012311870

World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles : An Empirical Investigation

Fernández, Andrés - 2016

intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This … paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world … disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455847

Global Cycles : Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Reinhart, Carmen M. - 2016

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456715