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Sovereign debt in the 21st century : looking backward, looking forward

Mitchener, Kris; Trebesch, Christoph - 2021

How will sovereign debt markets evolve in the 21st century? We survey how the literature has responded to the eurozone debt crisis, placing "lessons learned" in historical perspective. The crisis featured: (i) the return of debt problems to advanced economies; (ii) a bank-sovereign "doom-loop"...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012659067

Restructuring sovereign bonds : holdouts, haircuts and the effectiveness of CACs

Fang, Chuck; Schumacher, Julian; Trebesch, Christoph - 2021 - This version: November 2020

higher haircuts see higher holdout rates, and the same is true for small bonds and those issued under foreign law. Collective …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012405397

Corona politics : the cost of mismanaging pandemics

Herrera, Helios; Konradt, Maximilian; Ordoñez, Guillermo; … - In: Covid economics : vetted and real-time papers (2020) 50, pp. 3-32

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012311870

Corona politics : the cost of mismanaging pandemics

Herrera, Helios; Konradt, Maximilian; Ordoñez, Guillermo; … - 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic is a major test for governments around the world. We study the political consequences of (mis …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012269818

World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles : An Empirical Investigation

Fernández, Andrés - 2016

intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This … paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world … disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455847

Global Cycles : Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Reinhart, Carmen M. - 2016

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456715

Political Booms, Financial Crises

Herrera, Helios - 2014

We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments' popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458321

Coping with disasters : two centuries of international official lending

Horn, Sebastian; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph - 2020

Official (government-to-government) lending is much larger than commonly known, often surpassing total private cross-border capital flows, especially during disasters such as wars, financial crises and natural catastrophes. We assemble the first comprehensive long-run dataset of official...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012233649

Sovereign haircuts : 200 years of creditor losses

Luckner, Clemens von <Graf>; Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, … - 2024

We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or "haircuts". Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014557831

Sovereign Haircuts : 200 Years of Creditor Losses

Luckner, Clemens von <Graf>; Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576628